Now, normally I would proclaim to all of you in the Lake Oroville real estate market that all real estate is local and that it is much more important to stay in tune with the local home sales numbers as opposed to general reports on the market. While this is still my philosophy, I do not think it is at all wise to IGNORE reports on the broader markets. After all, it is the broader markets that get the media coverage when it comes to just about anything real estate these days. Like it or not the media has a lot of influence on the consumer’s psyche that helps in creating the mindset that consumers are using when making decisions on whether to buy or sell a home.  If you are a regular reader of this blog site that serves the real estate housing markets of Oroville, Chico, Paradise, Yuba City, and Marysville California you know that I do not believe any improvement will occur in this housing market until we have two things: Employment and consumer confidence.

It is becuase of the latter of these two vital ingredients that I want to share excerpts from the article posted on DQNews.com.

The number of California homes that went into foreclosure fell to a four-year low last quarter, the result of a more stable housing market as well as policy changes in the mortgage servicing industry, a real estate information service reported.

Last quarter’s activity was the lowest for any quarter since 53,493 NoDs were recorded in the second quarter of 2007. It was well below half the record 135,431 default notices recorded in the first quarter of 2009.

A total of 56,633 Notices of Default (NoDs) were recorded at county recorders offices during the April-to-June period. That was down 17.0 percent from 68,239 for the prior quarter, and down 19.2 percent from 70,051 in second-quarter 2010, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. The probability was highest in Kings, Sutter and Yuba counties.

Trustees Deeds recorded (TDs), or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 42,465 during the second quarter. That was down 1.4 percent from 43,052 for the prior quarter, and down 10.9 percent from 47,669 for second-quarter 2010. The all-time peak was 79,511 in third-quarter 2008.

Last quarter’s trustees deeds total was the lowest since 35,431 were filed in fourth quarter 2010, and the second-lowest since fourth quarter 2007, when 31,676 were filed.

Now, let’s be clear here. Even with this “encouraging” news, we have a long long way to go until the real estate market is healthy again. But it is important to understand, especially for you buyers out there who are still waiting for things to go lower, that this market is so beat up right now that, if this type of news consistently continues over the next two or three quarters, it is very possible to see some firming up of prices and maybe even some very modest price increases.  Just food for thought.

In an artice that just arrived in today’s communication from Inman News, I thought I was experiencing Deja Vu all over again. In fact, some of it sounded so familiar that I started to rack my brain as to where I had heard this kind of thing before. I looked high and low and still no hint. I looked inside and outside. I looked everywhere in the entire Lake Oroville real estate market area. But no luck remembering where I had heard it before.

So now my dear readers, I turn to you for help. Here, excerpted in part, (Click Here to see entire article) is what I read from the article written by Glen Roberts, Jr., entitled “ A slow-motion real estate recovery”. Maybe you  can help me remember:

Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, said government stimuli have delayed recovery.

“We’re not in a ‘double dip’ in my mind,” said Dotzour — referring to some economists’ talk of a second dive into downturn after some signs of an economic rebound — “we just never hit bottom in the first place.”

The market essentially “fell off a cliff,” and the government’s “lifeline” of programs it throttled at the recession, among them the homebuyer tax credit programs, “Cash for Clunkers” auto program, loan mod programs and Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt, did not have the intended benefits.

The market “would have started coming back up to a year ago or so if we hadn’t had the federal intervention in the first place.”

The federal homebuyer tax credit programs appear to have been largely ineffective, essentially “stealing” sales forward that would have occurred at a later time. “We believe pretty strongly that we paid back every bit of that stimulus,” he said, with the slumping sales that followed expiration of the tax credits.

Hmm…..now where in the world have a I heard these type ideas before?????  Wait……………..yes…………………..now I’m starting to remember………….Here is what I had read in the past.

August 31, 2009

“When the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit was enacted, I advised that we not get too excited about any uptick in sales activity, as the uptick will be the result of the government paying people to buy homes creating an ‘artificial’ demand.”

“The housing sales numbers will continue their upward trend, and may even accelerate through the end of the year as last minute first time home buyers scramble to close escrow by November 30, 2009.  Should Congress choose not to extend the credit deadline we will probably begin to see a trailing off of  the sales pace toward the middle of spring 2010.”

“On the home values front, we are still facing a huge challenge. There are still plenty of foreclosures on the market and the word is the banks have plenty more inventory on their books that have yet to come to market. If this is true, home values will continue to stay depressed. If these reports turn out to be exaggerated it will be good news for home values going forward.”

September 30, 2009

“My big concern is that getting money from the government to buy a house or buy a car or to buy anything, is like giving the consumer economic cocaine. It only takes once or twice to get hooked on it and the fear of consumer withdrawl will cause the Congressional junkies to keep pushing more at us.”

“I say let the free market do it’s thing.”

October 23, 2009

“Remember that during the “dark days” of the market when it seemed that everyone was saying the collapse of the real estate market was leading us into the next Great Depression? At the same time I was advising you to take the predictions of gloom and doom with a grain of salt and keep your perspective on what was really going on.”

“I am advising the same thing now. While these are impressive numbers, they are numbers mostly driven by the federal first time home buyers tax credit, the Cash for Clunkers for the housing industry. To provide the perspective on this look what happened after the Cash for Clunkers program ended; auto sales dropped by up to 50% for some auto makers. There is still some heartburn to go through as we climb out of the hole created by the explosion of the bubble. Hopefully, while making the ascent we don’t find ourselves on a slippery slope that is sometimes created by government bailouts.”

June 23, 2010

“But, wait!! I thought the government’ s tax credit program was supposed to stabilize the market. If you listened to, and believed what,  the National Association of REALTORS® and the California Association of REALTORS® have had to say about the credits, you should be seeing a recovery by now. But, what we are beginning to see, on a National basis, (which is what most of us read and hear about) is a rapid move of the market toward the place it would have already gone, if  the people who should know better would have been honest about the ultimate impact of these credits they were supporting.”

“Instead these groups landed on the side of  getting a quick “fix” instead of thinking long term.  Now we have to look even longer term because the inevitable has been prolonged.”

 

So have you figured out who is responsible for this foresight?? Just click on any of the above date links and it will all become clear to you.

Without getting into the minutia of the issue, the Housing Department originally said that my client would not be able to purchase the home based on the current guidelines that were established within the grant program that is being used to fund the loans for first time home buyers that are purchasing homes within the city limits of the Lake Oroville real estate market.

In my view, the guideline that they were using was one that was very subjective and open to broad interpretation. In discussing this issue with the housing department over a three day period I think I talked to nearly everyone in the department.

I talked to Dawn, Tiffany, Vanessa, and Pat during this time and to be totally honest I thought I was going to get the proverbial government runaround that normally comes in  dealing with “policy.”

Well I was wrong. That’s right….wrong!

Each of these public servants listened to my concerns and my position with an open mind  and in the end understood that the guideline was in fact extremely subjective and worked diligently to do the right thing for my client , as well as for future users of the First Time Home Buyer Loan Program, of which many in the Lake Oroville real estate market have availed themselves.

The postition that these ladies are in cannot always be an enjoyable job. Dealing with REALTORS®, lenders and first time home buyers while trying to keep up with, and communciate, the many changes that occur in the grant programs that make the loan programs possible has got to be quite a challenge.

A big thank you to Pat Clark, the Director of Business Assistance and Housing Development, and the entire staff in the department for their help. It is refreshing to see that common sense and fairness are alive and well in the halls of our city in the Lake Oroville real estate market.