Lake Oroville Real Estate Market Review

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

This is starting to get down right boring.

Another slow week in the Lake Oroville real estate market this past week.  Yes, it is true that the number of Oroville homes that sold in the past week is the best it has been in about 5 weeks. But that may be the only semi-bright spot in these numbers.  I say semi-bright because if you look at the average sales price of each Oroville home sale it clearly shows that most of the sales that took place this week in Oroville were very low priced homes that appear to have been snapped up by investors.

Tune in next week for more….hopefully good news! Continue reading

An August Not To Remember

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

I know that as of the posting of this blog the month of August is not quite done yet.

But I hereby make a motion to put the memory of this month’s Lake Oroville real estate market sales numbers behind us and never look back again!

With another paltry week of Oroville real estate sales in the books and with just a very few sales yet to be logged into the Oroville area multiple listing service, the number of Oroville homes that sold this month will be the fewest number of homes sold in nearly 4 years. Yes, you read that correctly, not since Nov.  2009 has the pace of Oroville area home sales been this slow.

Although interest rates are still  extremely low, the recent increase in the rates coupled with the lack of reasonably priced homes has apparently caused a pause in buyer demand.

There are however, a couple of bright spots in this weeks Oroville area home sales data. Continue reading

More “Help” For The Market?

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

 

The number of buyers who are searching for their next home in the Lake Oroville real estate market is about to increase putting further pressure on home prices thanks to FHA.

Under this new program, which runs until September 30, 2016, someone who has lost their home due to an “Economic Event” or has filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 13 bankruptcy due to an “Economic Event” can qualify for the purchase of a home with an FHA loan in as little as 12 months after the loss of their home or discharge of their bankruptcy.

What is considered an “Economic Event” under the FHA guidelines? According to Mortgagee Letter 2013-26 it is defined this way: Continue reading

Look Ma, No REO’s!

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

 

Well, well, well what do we have here in the Lake Oroville area? The end of the Oroville foreclosure market?

Looking at this week’s home sales data for the Greater Oroville area you might draw such a conclusion being  there was not ONE foreclosed property that sold in the past week. (see the red highlighted stat).  To bolster your conclusion you may also point to the fact  that this is the first week since I have been tracking this number dating back to October 2009 that there has not been at least one bank-owned Oroville home that has sold.

As I prepared to share this week’s Oroville real estate information with you my plan was to caution you that we should certainly expect to see more foreclosure sales take place and that it is a little early to say the foreclosure market in the Oroville area has met with extinction.  However, as I was typing the first paragraph of this weekly editorial, and because I am such a great multitasker, I began think that I may be…..yes, wrong!

Maybe the “foreclosure market” IS over! Oh sure, there are still bank-owned homes for sale, but does the current inventory of Oroville bank-owned homes (19 homes, or less than 10% of the available inventory) actually constitute a “market?”  I wonder?

Here is another interesting fact this week: Continue reading

A Different Look At The Market

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

One of the more difficult things to measure in the Lake Oroville real estate market, and quite frankly just about any market that has any type of diversity in the make up of homes, is how much  values may be increasing or decreasing as the case may be.

Your everyday, run of the mill real estate agent usually falls into the trap of using price per square foot to value properties. If the agent thinks that homes are selling for $100 per square foot and your home is 1500 square feet then your home gets valued at $150,000.  Now this may work great in area where there are plenty of cookie cutter subdivisions in which  there are only 3 or four different floor plans. But,  in the more rural areas like the Lake Oroville real estate market, this valuation approach is not reliable. Valuations in a town with such diverse property types can be quite the challenge which is why sites like Zillow and Trulia are sometimes very  inaccurate in our area when it comes to their estimates of values of homes in the Oroville real estate market.  There are just too many variables to consider if you are trying to take a simplistic approach to valuations.

Today I have a chart that takes a little different approach to looking at how prices are changing for homes in the greater Oroville area. This chart shows the behavior of home prices for active listings as a percentage of the overall market over the past year.  For example, on February 1 2013, thirty percent of the homes on the Oroville market were priced between $100,000 and $149,999.  On July 12, 2013 the number was 23%.  I have broken values down into 8 different price ranges and I am recording these number on a semi annual basis in the hopes that it will provide more insight into what is happening with asking prices of homes in the Oroville market.  There is definitely a shift going on. The big question is, will the shift result in fewer buyers being able to buy homes?

For a full screen look at the chart just click on it.

Inventory Chart

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Lake Oroville Home Sales Weekly Review

Here are the numbers for the Lake Oroville real estate market for the week ending 6/6/2013.

 

If you only look at the percentage change from the previous week you would think the Oroville market was crashing. But, fear not. It looks like that we just cleared up some inventory of homes that had been on the market for what now is an unusually long amount of time.  Most of what sold was REALLY distressed property that would not qualify for any type of institutional loan, and, that I am guessing, investors picked up with cash purchases.

Last week was the first week in a LONG LONG time that bank-owned homes for sale in the Oroville real estate market numbered in the single digits. There were only 9, that’s right NINE, bank owned homes on the greater Oroville real estate market when I ran the report. Not having begun tracking this number until 2009, which was the depths of the Oroville real estate market downturn, I don’t have any data to support what a “normal” level of Oroville bank owned properties on the market should be.  But, if this trend continues I would speculate that by the end of the year, or the first part of 2014, these REO properties will be a non-issue. The wildcard is whether or not there actually is the dreaded “Shadow Inventory” lurking around the corner.

 

MLS Stats for Oroville Area Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending % Change
5/23/2013 5/30/2013 6/6/2013 Previous Week
# of Total Sales 16 16 14 -12.50%
# REO/Short Sales Sold (SS) 8 3 7 133.33%
% Sales that are REO/SS 50.00% 18.75% 50.00% 166.67%
Avg. List Price $145,563 $144,269 $87,729 -39.19%
Avg. Sold Price $140,741 $141,119 $77,704 -44.94%
Sold Price % of Listing Price 96.69% 97.82% 88.57% -9.45%
Avg. Days On The Market 54 41 98 139.02%
Total Sales Volume $2,329,000 $2,257,899 $1,040,350 -53.92%
# of Single Family Listings 151 150 150 0.00%
# Foreclosed On Market 14 10 9 -10.00%
% of Foreclosed on Market 9.27% 6.67% 6.00% -10.00%
# Short Sales on Market 8 8 9 12.50%
% Short Sales on Market 5.30% 5.33% 6.00% 12.50%
Days of Inventory Left 66 66 75 14.29%
# of Pending Sales 109 87 87 0.00%
Data compiled from the CRMLS multiple listing service for single family homes in the
Greater Oroville real estate market area including the areas of Oroville, Palermo, Concow,
Forbestown, Bangor, Berry Creek, Brush Creek, Honcut, Yankee Hill
Information deemed reliabe but not guaranteed.
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Almost Weekly Sales Report

By: Mark Wisterman

 I know, I know, I can’t keep calling it the weekly Lake Oroville housing report if I don’t actually report WEEKLY.  So, my phrase of the day is: Better late than never.

On the whole, there is not anything too earth-shattering in the Oroville real estate numbers over the past couple of weeks.  Unit sales are remaining fairly steady and the inventory of homes for sale in the Oroville market is sustaining the low levels that we have seen for a few months now. Oroville buyers are still having a tough time dealing with these low inventories in the face of rapidly rising interest rates, while sellers continue to hold back from listing their homes for sale waiting for the market values to climb higher.

And speaking of sellers: Continue reading

A Recap of Lake Oroville Market Activity for April 2013

By: Mark Wisterman

Here is a short slide show recapping the activity in the Lake Oroville real estate market for the month of April 2013.

The number of homes that were sold in the months of March and April are the two largest back to back monthly sales of Oroville homes since I have been tracking monthly sales dating back to October 2005. However, there has been a noticeable slowdown of closed sales so far during the month of May. Lack of inventory appears to be threatening to slow the sale of Lake Oroville homes for sale. As usual I will keep an eye on the market and continue to keep you informed of any trends that develop.

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Another Week Come and Gone

 By: Mark Wisterman

We meet, once again, to review the latest weekly real estate market information for the Lake Oroville real estate market

The number of Oroville home listings that sold this week continue to show increases as does the average price for Oroville real estate market listings that have sold. With $1.75 million in total sales of Oroville homes listed, this was also an above average week for sales volume.

So what the heck is the cause of all these increases? Take a look at the numbers highlighted in red. The number of homes in the greater Lake Oroville area available for sale continues to shrink. Down over 2.5% from the previous week.  It is this number alone, in my opinion, that is driving the rest of the numbers.  In my next post I will spend a little time discussing these low inventory numbers and how I think it is going to affect the Oroville, CA real estate market in the short term and what buyer’s and seller’s can do in the face of the changing real estate market in Oroville.

 

MLS Stats for Oroville Area Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending % Change
2/28/2013 3/7/2013 3/14/2013 Previous Week
# of Total Sales 9 10 12 20.00%
# REO/Short Sales Sold (SS) 3 5 6 20.00%
% Sales that are REO/SS 33.33% 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Avg. List Price $144,367 $132,915 $153,700 15.64%
Avg. Sold Price $140,861 $124,940 $145,925 16.80%
Sold Price % of Listing Price 97.57% 94.00% 94.94% 1.00%
Avg. Days On The Market 64 190 186 -2.11%
Total Sales Volume $1,267,750 $1,249,399 $1,751,100 40.16%
# of Single Family Listings 150 149 145 -2.68%
# Foreclosed On Market 19 17 21 23.53%
% of Foreclosed on Market 12.67% 11.41% 14.48% 26.94%
# Short Sales on Market 9 5 6 20.00%
% Short Sales on Market 6.00% 3.36% 4.14% 23.31%
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Lake Oroville Real Estate Week In Review

Time to once again take a look at the weekly home sales for the greater Lake Oroville real estate market.

Another good week for the number of  Oroville homes sold in the Lake Oroville real  estate market this past week. Total sales volume exceeded $1,000,000 in back to back weeks for the first time in months.  The inventory of available homes for sale in the Oroville real estate market continues to decline as more buyers are entering the market as they try to beat the rise in interest rates that is occurring in the face of improved unemployment numbers were reported this week.

The number of  “distressed” Oroville home listings, those that have been foreclosed upon or have loan balances in excess of their values also continues to slide. Going forward I look for the short sale market of Oroville homes for sale to be on the brink of extinction towards the end of the year as values continue to slowly recover.  As the value of Oroville homes increases we will begin to see more inventory of owner occupied homes which will provide buyers more opportunities to avoid having to deal with the foreclosure market and the backwards way that the banks and their agents have deal with their transaction.  Before writing this post I briefly researched the sales activity of local agents whose clients are predominantly banks. I think that the most telling stat I discovered was that, for the first two months of this year, one of the busiest foreclosure agents in the Lake Oroville area has seen a nearly 40% decrease in the number of listings sold as compared to the same period last year.  I will monitor this in the coming months to see if this is just a blip or an actual trend developing.

 Tip of the Week: Pay attention the interest rates. The pressure is on for rates to increase! 

MLS Stats for Oroville Area Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending % Change
2/14/2013 2/21/2013 2/28/2013 3/7/2013 Previous Week
# of Total Sales 8 6 9 10 11.11%
# REO/Short Sales Sold (SS) 2 2 3 5 66.67%
% Sales that are REO/SS 25.00% 33.33% 33.33% 50.00% 50.00%
Avg. List Price $122,516 $117,100 $144,367 $132,915 -7.93%
Avg. Sold Price $117,138 $102,525 $140,861 $124,940 -11.30%
Sold Price % of Listing Price 95.61% 87.55% 97.57% 94.00% -3.66%
Avg. Days On The Market 178 51 64 190 196.88%
Total Sales Volume $937,100 $615,150 $1,267,750 $1,249,399 -1.45%
# of Single Family Listings 155 150 150 149 -0.67%
# Foreclosed On Market 20 18 19 17 -10.53%
% of Foreclosed on Market 12.90% 12.00% 12.67% 11.41% -9.93%
# Short Sales on Market 7 7 9 5 -44.44%
% Short Sales on Market 4.52% 4.67% 6.00% 3.36% -44.07%
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