But during my number crunching I realized that it  has been a while since I had updated my charts that I have been using to track the monthly and annual Lake Oroville home sales. 

After updating these charts I noticed an interesting long term trend in one of the charts that I thought you needed to see. From past blog posts, you all know that I do not take the  month to month numbers that are released into the media on an ongoing basis as important as what has happened over longer periods of time. I think the media is far too focused on what this month did compared to that month, which in turn has focused the consumer on the very same thing.  This narrow focus is what I believe is going to cause many buyers to miss  the great opportunities that currently abound in the marketplace as far as prices and interest rates are concerned. 

Now before you get excited, thinking this is another one of those real estate blogs posts that tells you to BUY NOW!!!!, let me tell that it is not. This market is going to provide great buying opportunities, for those of you that still have jobs in this economy, for the foreseeable future.   What I am telling you is to look at this chart and see for yourself what this Lake Oroville real estate market is whispering to you. When looking at a chart like this most people look at the peaks to see how high things have gone. What I suggest that you look at here is the lower side of this chart. The former stock broker in me says ignore what is happening in the high side and pay close attention to what is happening on the low side. In the stock broker world a stock that showed a trend of higher lows was one to pay attention to and was a good signal that the stock was poised to move to higher highs.  (Click Here or on the Chart to Enlarge)

As indicated on this chart, the number of homes sold on a monthly basis in the Lake Oroville real estate market have been setting higher overall lows since 2008. The indication here is that, as far as the number of Oroville homes sold is concerned, the worst appears to be over and if this trend continues we will eventually begin selling units at a higher pace than the pace at which new listings are coming to market.  It will be this difference between supply and demand that will result in an increase in values and prices. Let’s be clear here. We have a LONG way to go before any appreciable change in prices and values. The current state of our local, state, and national economies are now the main cause of the drag on the market. Unemployment has now surpassed the loan scandals of the past few years as the culprit for this ugly market.  

Hopefully, information like this will keep you from being surprised while thinks SLOOOOOOOOWWWWWLLLLLLY gets better. 

In an artice that just arrived in today’s communication from Inman News, I thought I was experiencing Deja Vu all over again. In fact, some of it sounded so familiar that I started to rack my brain as to where I had heard this kind of thing before. I looked high and low and still no hint. I looked inside and outside. I looked everywhere in the entire Lake Oroville real estate market area. But no luck remembering where I had heard it before.

So now my dear readers, I turn to you for help. Here, excerpted in part, (Click Here to see entire article) is what I read from the article written by Glen Roberts, Jr., entitled “ A slow-motion real estate recovery”. Maybe you  can help me remember:

Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, said government stimuli have delayed recovery.

“We’re not in a ‘double dip’ in my mind,” said Dotzour — referring to some economists’ talk of a second dive into downturn after some signs of an economic rebound — “we just never hit bottom in the first place.”

The market essentially “fell off a cliff,” and the government’s “lifeline” of programs it throttled at the recession, among them the homebuyer tax credit programs, “Cash for Clunkers” auto program, loan mod programs and Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt, did not have the intended benefits.

The market “would have started coming back up to a year ago or so if we hadn’t had the federal intervention in the first place.”

The federal homebuyer tax credit programs appear to have been largely ineffective, essentially “stealing” sales forward that would have occurred at a later time. “We believe pretty strongly that we paid back every bit of that stimulus,” he said, with the slumping sales that followed expiration of the tax credits.

Hmm…..now where in the world have a I heard these type ideas before?????  Wait……………..yes…………………..now I’m starting to remember………….Here is what I had read in the past.

August 31, 2009

“When the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit was enacted, I advised that we not get too excited about any uptick in sales activity, as the uptick will be the result of the government paying people to buy homes creating an ‘artificial’ demand.”

“The housing sales numbers will continue their upward trend, and may even accelerate through the end of the year as last minute first time home buyers scramble to close escrow by November 30, 2009.  Should Congress choose not to extend the credit deadline we will probably begin to see a trailing off of  the sales pace toward the middle of spring 2010.”

“On the home values front, we are still facing a huge challenge. There are still plenty of foreclosures on the market and the word is the banks have plenty more inventory on their books that have yet to come to market. If this is true, home values will continue to stay depressed. If these reports turn out to be exaggerated it will be good news for home values going forward.”

September 30, 2009

“My big concern is that getting money from the government to buy a house or buy a car or to buy anything, is like giving the consumer economic cocaine. It only takes once or twice to get hooked on it and the fear of consumer withdrawl will cause the Congressional junkies to keep pushing more at us.”

“I say let the free market do it’s thing.”

October 23, 2009

“Remember that during the “dark days” of the market when it seemed that everyone was saying the collapse of the real estate market was leading us into the next Great Depression? At the same time I was advising you to take the predictions of gloom and doom with a grain of salt and keep your perspective on what was really going on.”

“I am advising the same thing now. While these are impressive numbers, they are numbers mostly driven by the federal first time home buyers tax credit, the Cash for Clunkers for the housing industry. To provide the perspective on this look what happened after the Cash for Clunkers program ended; auto sales dropped by up to 50% for some auto makers. There is still some heartburn to go through as we climb out of the hole created by the explosion of the bubble. Hopefully, while making the ascent we don’t find ourselves on a slippery slope that is sometimes created by government bailouts.”

June 23, 2010

“But, wait!! I thought the government’ s tax credit program was supposed to stabilize the market. If you listened to, and believed what,  the National Association of REALTORS® and the California Association of REALTORS® have had to say about the credits, you should be seeing a recovery by now. But, what we are beginning to see, on a National basis, (which is what most of us read and hear about) is a rapid move of the market toward the place it would have already gone, if  the people who should know better would have been honest about the ultimate impact of these credits they were supporting.”

“Instead these groups landed on the side of  getting a quick “fix” instead of thinking long term.  Now we have to look even longer term because the inevitable has been prolonged.”

 

So have you figured out who is responsible for this foresight?? Just click on any of the above date links and it will all become clear to you.

Lately the word is, the more things change the more they stay the same. Except for overall home values, that is. In Oroville we can’t seem to sell anymore than 7-8 homes per week and average prices of the Oroville home listings that are selling continue to trail downwardly.

Here are this week’s numbers: 

The higher rate was imposed upon California by our legislature and Governor on April 1, 2009 in the hopes of helping close the budget gap caused by the out of control spending of our “state leaders.” As usual, raising taxes only made matters worse. But enough about politics.

With the expiration of the current increased tax rate only two weeks away (unless it is somehow extended) it is wise to consider putting of any non-essential purchase until the new rate takes effect. Consider the savings you will enjoy by putting off the purchase of that new car you are about to buy. By simply waiting a mere two weeks you can save yourself $200 in sales tax for a $20,000 car and $300 in taxes for a car that costs you $30,000. Heck, that is like getting a free tank of gas Speaking of cars, you can also save on registration fees if you put your purchase off until July 1st because vehicle registration fees are also being rolled back then.

The reduction in the sales tax is going to be good for the economy of a state struggling to get back on its economic feet by leaving consumers with more money in their pockets that will most likely be spent on other things. For example, the overall price on a gallon of gas will be reduced by the reduction in the sales tax. At today’s price of $3.77 per gallon at the corner AM/PM you will save almost 4cents per gallon with the new (or should I say old) rate.

If it is at all possible for you to put off that taxable purchase until July 1, then I say do it and keep more of YOUR money.

Related articles

• Calif. legislators OK online sales tax, and that means Amazon(bizjournals.com)
• California Democrats send budget to Brown(bendbulletin.com)
• California Lawmakers Pass No-Tax Budget as Deadline Looms(businessweek.com)

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The celebration kicks off with Salmon and Tri-tip BBQ at the Feather River Nature Center at 6:00pm tonight and continues tomorrow from 10am-4pm with tours of the Feather River Fish Hatchery, the Downtown Oroville Street Fair, and the 10K Salmon run.

Every September for the past 16 years, the streets of Oroville between Historic Downtown and the Feather River Fish Hatchery burst with fish-flavored activities during the Annual Salmon Festival, a day of fun, food, music and information.

On this special day Oroville celebrates the thousands of spawning salmon that annually make their way from the ocean back up the Feather River.  Environmental education, music, salmon tasting, tours of the hatchery, and fun for kids and adults highlight this free event.

The Historical Downtown Oroville comes alive with a pancake breakfast, certified farmer’s market, live music, craft fair, and Family Fun Day

At the Feather River Nature Center, guests can experience the Maidu Salmon Ceremony with live dancing by local Native Americans.

This year you can nosh at the Salmon Court where recipes featuring salmon will be featured, take a spin in a kayak on the beautiful Feather River or join the fun at the Family Circus near the Municipal Auditorium.

A free shuttle to transport people between events is available.

Click here or on the picture to see the entire flyer.

Without getting into the minutia of the issue, the Housing Department originally said that my client would not be able to purchase the home based on the current guidelines that were established within the grant program that is being used to fund the loans for first time home buyers that are purchasing homes within the city limits of the Lake Oroville real estate market.

In my view, the guideline that they were using was one that was very subjective and open to broad interpretation. In discussing this issue with the housing department over a three day period I think I talked to nearly everyone in the department.

I talked to Dawn, Tiffany, Vanessa, and Pat during this time and to be totally honest I thought I was going to get the proverbial government runaround that normally comes in  dealing with “policy.”

Well I was wrong. That’s right….wrong!

Each of these public servants listened to my concerns and my position with an open mind  and in the end understood that the guideline was in fact extremely subjective and worked diligently to do the right thing for my client , as well as for future users of the First Time Home Buyer Loan Program, of which many in the Lake Oroville real estate market have availed themselves.

The postition that these ladies are in cannot always be an enjoyable job. Dealing with REALTORS®, lenders and first time home buyers while trying to keep up with, and communciate, the many changes that occur in the grant programs that make the loan programs possible has got to be quite a challenge.

A big thank you to Pat Clark, the Director of Business Assistance and Housing Development, and the entire staff in the department for their help. It is refreshing to see that common sense and fairness are alive and well in the halls of our city in the Lake Oroville real estate market.

Which brings me to the question of what you want to see in these Paradise numbers. Do you want to see  just Paradise stats or would you like to me to include numbers for the Magalia area too?

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It looks as though that the inventory of unsold homes is beginning to increase slightly. This may be an effect of some sellers trying to get a head start on what most people think is the peak selling season of Spring. Hopefully we can get the bugs worked out of our new MLS system soon. Watch for the weekly sales numbers for the Paradise real estate market later this week.