Mark Wisterman's Paradise & Lake Oroville Real Estate Blog

 Hello again Paradise CA real estate market watchers and welcome back to your weekly stats. There is really not anything of note in this weeks’s report. With the deadline to qualify for any type of homebuyer tax credit fast approaching, I would expect to seeing some upward movements in the stats over the next 4-6 weeks.

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Here are the numbers for last week’s Lake Oroville real estate market. This is the third week in a row that the number of Oroville home sales has been in single digits, and the 7th week out of the past 8 for this. With inventories still low, and a lot of that inventory in disrepair it is becoming more and more difficult to find properties for Oroville area buyers.  All of my team members have pools of buyers that they simply cannot find decent properties to show them.

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Over the past eighteen months or so I am sure you have seen many an article written by various real estate professionals encouraging buyers to “get off the fence” to take advantage of the low prices and low interest rates currently available.  As a regular reader of this Lake Oroville and Paradise, CA real estate blog you have also seen my views of market conditions over the past year. Many buyers have taken the advice and made some magnificent deals on their purchase of homes in the Oroville and Paradise, Ca real estate markets.

The advice has been taken so seriously in fact that a new dilemma is now facing potential Oroville and Paradise buyers: A lack of adequate inventory!

Suffering from significant loses in the value of their homes, many Oroville and Paradise potential home sellers have decided to wait for the market to get “better” before putting their homes on the market. What the definition of “better” is remains to be seen, but a look at the trend in the Oroville inventory numbers (see chart) points to a need for some sellers to get off the fence themselves and take advantage of the lower interest rates, and the increase in buyer inquiries we are beginning to experience.

Granted, home prices are not what they were in 2006, but if you are waiting for a return to those prices, you are in for a very long wait. Those prices were a result of very loose and irresponsible lending standards. They were not driven by free market demand.

So what is a seller to do? Well, that depends on your circumstances. If you do not need to sell, then DON’T. If you are considering a sell but are thinking about waiting for a year or so for the market to improve, you may be outsmarting yourself. While it is possible (isn’t anything possible) that prices may move up in the next year, it is not very probable. I continue to think that we are at the bottom of this market but that we will be bouncing along the bottom for quite some time. Maybe two to three years before we see any consistent price appreciation trends in our local markets.

Historically low interest rates, and lower prices have significantly increased the home affordability for Californians. An increase in either of these factors will exclude potential buyers from the market further delaying any meaningful recovery.

Another thing to consider when contemplating a sale is how many other homes are on the market that compete for the attention of potential buyers. With inventories at an 8 month low, now would be the best time for your home to be seen by the most buyers.

I know that many of you are upside down with your mortgages at the present time and NEED to wait for a significant turn in home values. But for those of you who owe less than the value of your home or own your homes outright, this may be a good time to think about getting off the fence.

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Just another run-of the mill week for Lake Oroville home sales last week. The average home price in Oroville last week is skewed downward by the sale of an older mobile home that sold for $6,000. If you excluded that sale from last week’s numbers the average sale would have been almost $121,ooo, which is in line with longer term market trends.

As it has been over the past few months, the number to pay close attention to is the inventory number. The number of homes for sale in the Oroville market are at their lowest point in nearly a year. Breaking below 300 for the first time since I began tracking the number. While a lower inventory of homes is normally good for prices, it can have an adverse effect on the market if the number gets too low. An inadequate number of homes for buyers to look at runs the risk of causing buyer frustration and shoving some of them back to the sidelines to wait for inventories to increase.

Well, enough from me today.  Here are this week’s numbers.

Expanded Lake Oroville Sales Stats

 It seems that this week’s Lake Oroville real estate market report reflects some ongoing reporting issues the local REALTORS are having with our new multiple listing service system.

It looks as though that the inventory of unsold homes is beginning to increase slightly. This may be an effect of some sellers trying to get a head start on what most people think is the peak selling season of Spring. Hopefully we can get the bugs worked out of our new MLS system soon. Watch for the weekly sales numbers for the Paradise real estate market later this week.

 Merry Christmas, everyone. We had a very slight sales rebound last week in the Lake Oroville real estate market, but again not much on which to comment. I think the biggest news in the current market environment  is that inventories are continuing to shrink. I have provided a chart at the bottom of this post which graphs the nature of the inventory trends.  Be sure to click on the graph for a larger view of it.  As a buyer you will want these inventories to show increases as this will keep prices more affordable. As a seller you should like the trend that has been developing since June. Shrinking inventories will result in higher prices over time. 

Click here or on chart for larger view

Click here for more stats

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