Is It That Time Already?

By: Mark Wisterman

Here we are once again to take a look at the latest weekly market activity for the Lake Oroville homes sales market.

As with nearly every week for the past two months there is certainly nothing earth-shattering going on in the Oroville real estate market.  Thanks to a couple of sales in the higher price ranges, the average sold price and the total value of Oroville area homes sold looks to be improving. But be careful not to get fooled here. With so few homes selling, it is very easy for a couple of large sells to tilt the numbers.

If you are wondering where the sales numbers may go in the coming weeks keep your eye on the very last line of the chart. The number of pending sales is a great future indicator of  the trend we will see 30-45 days from now regarding completed sales of Oroville homes. It has been flat for weeks now, indicating that we will not be seeing any significant increases in closed sales in the near term.

This is the 5th week in a row that the gap has grown between what an home in the Lake Oroville real estate market was originally priced at and at what price it actually sold. This gap may continue to increase as there is still a number of homes coming to market that have been……well, let’s just say,…………optimistically priced.

 

MLS Stats for Oroville Area Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending % Change 6 Month
9/26/2013 10/3/2013 10/10/2013 Previous Week Average
# of Total Sales 14 11 9 -18.18% 11
# REO/Short Sales Sold (SS) 7 5 1 -80.00% 4
% Sales that are REO/SS 50.00% 45.45% 11.11% -75.56% 36.24%
Avg. List Price $127,479 $140,205 $196,031 39.82% $140,198
Avg. Sold Price $127,007 $134,536 $189,617 40.94% $135,787
Sold Price % of Listing Price 99.63% 95.96% 96.73% 0.80% 96.80%
Avg. Original List Price $136,893 $151,800 $217,800 43.48% $148,463
Sold Price % of Original Price 92.78% 88.63% 87.06% -1.77% 92.92%
Avg. Days On The Market 123 56 83 48.21% 65
Total Sales Volume $1,426,100 $1,479,900 $1,706,550 15.32% $1,544,030
# of Single Family Listings 184 177 175 -1.13% 172
Days of Inventory Left 92 113 136 20.84% 120
# of Pending Sales 77 71 72 1.41% 77
Data compiled from the CRMLS multiple listing service for single family homes in the
Greater Oroville real estate market area including the areas of Oroville, Palermo, Concow,
Forbestown, Bangor, Berry Creek, Brush Creek, Honcut, Yankee Hill
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
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FHA And The Partial Shutdown

Lake Oroville market, Oroville home sales, butte county home sales, Oroville real estate, homes for sale, Chico real estate, chico home sales, paradise homes for sale, financing, loans, FHA, Oroville real estate agents.

Time Flies- Another Week Behind Us

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

 

The preliminary market results are in for home sales in the Lake Oroville real estate for the most recent week.

I say preliminary because I discovered a bit of a glitch in how I have been reporting the weekly home sales numbers for the Oroville market. The week that I report on runs from Friday through Thursday of each week. What I discovered is that some agents are not getting their sales logged into our multiple listing service in time for me to pick them up for my weekly report causing an under reporting issue for Lake Oroville area home sales.  To correct this issue I will be revising the previous weekly Oroville home sales numbers at the time that I gather data on the recent weekly market numbers. I want you to have the most current and relevant data as you can possibly have and this new reporting standard will help with that.

Speaking of current and relevant numbers, I am making big change in this weekly report chart. Beginning with this report I am no longer providing data on the number of bank-owned Oroville homes for sale or the number of homes for sale in the Oroville market that are considered short sales. The reason for this is that the current level of these homes on the market is insignificant and they are no longer making a major impact on the market. I am still tracking the numbers but will no longer report them on this site.

In place of these numbers I have added something that I think, going forward, will provide more perspective on the market than the reporting of REO do. Continue reading

An August Not To Remember

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

I know that as of the posting of this blog the month of August is not quite done yet.

But I hereby make a motion to put the memory of this month’s Lake Oroville real estate market sales numbers behind us and never look back again!

With another paltry week of Oroville real estate sales in the books and with just a very few sales yet to be logged into the Oroville area multiple listing service, the number of Oroville homes that sold this month will be the fewest number of homes sold in nearly 4 years. Yes, you read that correctly, not since Nov.  2009 has the pace of Oroville area home sales been this slow.

Although interest rates are still  extremely low, the recent increase in the rates coupled with the lack of reasonably priced homes has apparently caused a pause in buyer demand.

There are however, a couple of bright spots in this weeks Oroville area home sales data. Continue reading

Look Ma, No REO’s!

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

 

Well, well, well what do we have here in the Lake Oroville area? The end of the Oroville foreclosure market?

Looking at this week’s home sales data for the Greater Oroville area you might draw such a conclusion being  there was not ONE foreclosed property that sold in the past week. (see the red highlighted stat).  To bolster your conclusion you may also point to the fact  that this is the first week since I have been tracking this number dating back to October 2009 that there has not been at least one bank-owned Oroville home that has sold.

As I prepared to share this week’s Oroville real estate information with you my plan was to caution you that we should certainly expect to see more foreclosure sales take place and that it is a little early to say the foreclosure market in the Oroville area has met with extinction.  However, as I was typing the first paragraph of this weekly editorial, and because I am such a great multitasker, I began think that I may be…..yes, wrong!

Maybe the “foreclosure market” IS over! Oh sure, there are still bank-owned homes for sale, but does the current inventory of Oroville bank-owned homes (19 homes, or less than 10% of the available inventory) actually constitute a “market?”  I wonder?

Here is another interesting fact this week: Continue reading

A Different Look At The Market

By: Mark Wisterman

My 2013 Photo-Web-Revised

One of the more difficult things to measure in the Lake Oroville real estate market, and quite frankly just about any market that has any type of diversity in the make up of homes, is how much  values may be increasing or decreasing as the case may be.

Your everyday, run of the mill real estate agent usually falls into the trap of using price per square foot to value properties. If the agent thinks that homes are selling for $100 per square foot and your home is 1500 square feet then your home gets valued at $150,000.  Now this may work great in area where there are plenty of cookie cutter subdivisions in which  there are only 3 or four different floor plans. But,  in the more rural areas like the Lake Oroville real estate market, this valuation approach is not reliable. Valuations in a town with such diverse property types can be quite the challenge which is why sites like Zillow and Trulia are sometimes very  inaccurate in our area when it comes to their estimates of values of homes in the Oroville real estate market.  There are just too many variables to consider if you are trying to take a simplistic approach to valuations.

Today I have a chart that takes a little different approach to looking at how prices are changing for homes in the greater Oroville area. This chart shows the behavior of home prices for active listings as a percentage of the overall market over the past year.  For example, on February 1 2013, thirty percent of the homes on the Oroville market were priced between $100,000 and $149,999.  On July 12, 2013 the number was 23%.  I have broken values down into 8 different price ranges and I am recording these number on a semi annual basis in the hopes that it will provide more insight into what is happening with asking prices of homes in the Oroville market.  There is definitely a shift going on. The big question is, will the shift result in fewer buyers being able to buy homes?

For a full screen look at the chart just click on it.

Inventory Chart

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Lake Oroville Home Sales Weekly Review

Here are the numbers for the Lake Oroville real estate market for the week ending 6/6/2013.

 

If you only look at the percentage change from the previous week you would think the Oroville market was crashing. But, fear not. It looks like that we just cleared up some inventory of homes that had been on the market for what now is an unusually long amount of time.  Most of what sold was REALLY distressed property that would not qualify for any type of institutional loan, and, that I am guessing, investors picked up with cash purchases.

Last week was the first week in a LONG LONG time that bank-owned homes for sale in the Oroville real estate market numbered in the single digits. There were only 9, that’s right NINE, bank owned homes on the greater Oroville real estate market when I ran the report. Not having begun tracking this number until 2009, which was the depths of the Oroville real estate market downturn, I don’t have any data to support what a “normal” level of Oroville bank owned properties on the market should be.  But, if this trend continues I would speculate that by the end of the year, or the first part of 2014, these REO properties will be a non-issue. The wildcard is whether or not there actually is the dreaded “Shadow Inventory” lurking around the corner.

 

MLS Stats for Oroville Area Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending % Change
5/23/2013 5/30/2013 6/6/2013 Previous Week
# of Total Sales 16 16 14 -12.50%
# REO/Short Sales Sold (SS) 8 3 7 133.33%
% Sales that are REO/SS 50.00% 18.75% 50.00% 166.67%
Avg. List Price $145,563 $144,269 $87,729 -39.19%
Avg. Sold Price $140,741 $141,119 $77,704 -44.94%
Sold Price % of Listing Price 96.69% 97.82% 88.57% -9.45%
Avg. Days On The Market 54 41 98 139.02%
Total Sales Volume $2,329,000 $2,257,899 $1,040,350 -53.92%
# of Single Family Listings 151 150 150 0.00%
# Foreclosed On Market 14 10 9 -10.00%
% of Foreclosed on Market 9.27% 6.67% 6.00% -10.00%
# Short Sales on Market 8 8 9 12.50%
% Short Sales on Market 5.30% 5.33% 6.00% 12.50%
Days of Inventory Left 66 66 75 14.29%
# of Pending Sales 109 87 87 0.00%
Data compiled from the CRMLS multiple listing service for single family homes in the
Greater Oroville real estate market area including the areas of Oroville, Palermo, Concow,
Forbestown, Bangor, Berry Creek, Brush Creek, Honcut, Yankee Hill
Information deemed reliabe but not guaranteed.
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Almost Weekly Sales Report

By: Mark Wisterman

 I know, I know, I can’t keep calling it the weekly Lake Oroville housing report if I don’t actually report WEEKLY.  So, my phrase of the day is: Better late than never.

On the whole, there is not anything too earth-shattering in the Oroville real estate numbers over the past couple of weeks.  Unit sales are remaining fairly steady and the inventory of homes for sale in the Oroville market is sustaining the low levels that we have seen for a few months now. Oroville buyers are still having a tough time dealing with these low inventories in the face of rapidly rising interest rates, while sellers continue to hold back from listing their homes for sale waiting for the market values to climb higher.

And speaking of sellers: Continue reading

Weekly Sales Review is Back

By: Mark Wisterman

Here we are once again, meeting to review the past week’s market activity of Oroville home sales in the Lake Oroville real estate market.

There is not much out of the ordinary to report this week.  The only interesting statistic in this chart concerns the number “distressed” sales (bank owned or short sales) that have taken place 2 of the last 3 weeks. With only one of these sales last week and just 2 of them 2 weeks ago it will be interesting going forward to see if this is an early sign of a trend developing in the sale of Oroville homes or if it is just a temporary slowdown. The next few weeks will tell.

In a recent post on our office Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/RealtyWorld.CA  I commented about the perception some buyers, and quite frankly their agents, have about prices in today’s Lake Oroville real estate market.  The comment being that there is no factual basis for anyone to make a blanket statement that everything is selling for more that asking price.  In fact for the 4 years that I have been tracking Oroville home sales there have been only 4 weeks where the average sales price has exceeded the average listing price. And not one, I repeat, NOT ONE of those weeks has occurred in 2013. In fact, the average sales price to listing price ratio is pretty much within historic norms. That is certainly not to say that some homes have not sold for more that asking price, because they have. My point here is that, as a buyer in the Oroville real estate market, you need to be sure you are fully informed about what the market is actually doing. It is easy to get sucked into the real estate hype. But do not feel bad if you do because many who work in the industry get sucked into it to. The reason: They do not take time to actually look at the numbers.

Lucky for you, you have this Lake Oroville real estate market blog site to help you stay on top of the numbers.

 

MLS Stats for Oroville Area Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending % Change
5/2/2013 5/9/2013 5/16/2013 Previous Week
# of Total Sales 10 13 10 -23.08%
# REO/Short Sales Sold (SS) 2 7 1 -85.71%
% Sales that are REO/SS 20.00% 53.85% 10.00% -81.43%
Avg. List Price $132,430 $141,500 $138,350 -2.23%
Avg. Sold Price $127,195 $130,244 $132,445 1.69%
Sold Price % of Listing Price 96.05% 92.05% 95.73% 4.01%
Avg. Days On The Market 57 96 94 -2.08%
Total Sales Volume $1,271,950 $1,693,169 $1,456,900 -13.95%
# of Single Family Listings 151 158 156 -1.27%
# Foreclosed On Market 17 21 20 -4.76%
% of Foreclosed on Market 11.26% 13.29% 12.82% -3.54%
# Short Sales on Market 9 6 8 33.33%
% Short Sales on Market 5.96% 3.80% 5.13% 35.04%
Days of Inventory Left 106 85 109

 

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Where Have All The Homes Gone?

By: Mark Wisterman

Sellers in the Lake Oroville real estate market, as well as those in the Paradise, Chico, and other Butte County real estate markets, are currently experiencing the makings of a perfect storm for home prices.

Buyers finally jumping off the fence to take advantage of the low government suppressed interest rates and the increased affordability brought on by an over-correction in housing values, are finding difficulties in having a home because inventories of homes for sale continues to shrink.  Fewer foreclosures coming to market and potential home sellers who can’t sell  because they owe more that their home is worth on the open market, are providing plenty of opportunities for current sellers to stand firm on their pricing.

I invite you to watch my latest vlog post for my take on the whole situation. And, as always, I welcome your comments. Especially yours, Eric!

 

 

 

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