Mark Wisterman's Paradise & Lake Oroville Real Estate Blog

After two consecutive days of “the sky is falling” reporting about the real estate market, I thought you all might appreciate some time meeting with our resident Lake Oroville Real Estate psychiatrist to help deal with this “tragic” news. 

Free Real Estate Market, meet Dr. I Told You So

Dr. I Told You So: What seems to be the problem today, Free Market

Free Market: I’m  just exhausted, Doc.

I Told You So: Really? Tell me why.

Free Market: Well, every time I try to do my job, something, or someone, interferes with me.

I Told You So: Didn’t we have this conversation about 10 years ago?

Free Market: Yes, when a bunch of meddlers forced me to loan money to people who would never have been approved for a loan, had they let me do my job. 

I Told You So:  So, how has it gone since then?

Free Market: Well, I hit my head real hard when I fell of the cliff. Since then they have been trying to put me on disability, thinking that I am no longer capable of doing my job.

I Told You So: Let me get this right, they attempted to disable you, Free Market.

Free Market: Yes.

I Told You So: Didn’t I tell you that there is no way to disable you? That the only way to stop you is to take you over?

Free Market: Yes, but how come nobody else seems to understand this?

I Told You So: Who is nobody? Read the rest of this entry »

Having spent a part of my working life, in the Lake Oroville real estate market, as a financial consultant with a major Wall Street brokerage company I was always entertained by, not only the jargon of the industry,  but also by some of the odd, or some might say superstitious, ways that pundits use to predict the next direction that the market or the economy might move.

For example, the Super Bowl Indicator theorizes that the year in which a team from the AFC wins the Super Bowl the stock market will fall, but if an NFC team wins the market will rally. Amazingly, this “predictor” has been right 80% of the time over the years. Another of these anecdotal predictors is the Hem Line Effect. This theory says that as hem lines move up so does the market and when hem lines get longer the market drops.

So, what does this have to do with anything related to the real estate market in Lake Oroville, Paradise and Chico, you say?

As to those theories, nothing. But I think we unintentionally swerved into the first real estate industry anecdotal predictor of the real estate market, in our office. I call it the Redenbacher Effect.

I discovered this theory while Steffan, one of the associates in my office was popping his $1.00 bag of popcorn ( that he bought at the Dollar Store, because that is where REALTORS® shop these days) in our microwave oven. You might imagine the quality level of $1.00 popcorn is not quite the same as the good stuff you get at the movies for about $5.00 a bag.  The fact that Steffan eats at least a bag a day of this stuff has leads me to believe that he is quite the popcorn connoisseur.

I will never forget the profoundness of the words that eminated from his lips as the Redenbacher Effect was born:

 ”I sure will be glad when the market gets good again so I can afford to buy something better than this $1.00 popcorn c*@p.”

With the suddenness of a light bulb being switched on to interrupt the darkness of an empty room, it hit me that we may finally have an accurate way to forecast the pending direction of  not only the Lake Oroville real estate market, but the real estate markets of all 4 corners of the world!

The Redenbacher Effect is defined as this: Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s news that new homes sales are at their worst level in recorded history comes on the heels of yesterday’s report that existing home sales we down more than 2% while the “experts” were expecting an increase of almost 6%, is great example of what I am afraid is going to be another 6 months to a year of pain for sellers and homeowners.  I hope I am wrong , but I fear that I am not.

But, wait!! I thought the government’ s tax credit program was supposed to stabilize the market. If you listened to, and believed what,  the National Association of REALTORS® and the California Association of REALTORS® have had to say about the credits, you should be seeing a recovery by now. But, what we are beginning to see, on a National basis, (which is what most of us read and hear about) is a rapid move of the market toward the place it would have already gone,if  the people who should know better would have been honest about the ultimate impact of these credits they were supporting.

Instead these groups landed on the side of  getting a quick “fix” instead of thinking long term. Now we have to look even longer term because the inevitable has been prolonged.

Now let’s be honest here. I and my office associates, here in the Lake Oroville and Paradise real estate markets,  no doubt benefited from the temporary increase in sales that resulted from the credits. Our sales numbers increased like everyone else’s.  I would, however, have gladly sacrificed the short term benefits in order to re-establish a viable, vibrant and free real estate market. One that has staying power.

As it is we are saddled with the hangover from the housing version of  Cash For Clunkers, or as I prefer to call it:  “Funds For Foreclosures”

If you think that I am all gloomy and doomy about this market you are wrong. I think that expiration of these tax credits now allow us to come back to reality and now focus on the real cause of this market today. UNEMPLOYMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Maybe a softer real estate market going into election season will be one more reason to finally get us the changes we need in order to get  our country’s, and our state’s, economic engine restarted.

As they say, Everything Happens for A Reason.

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• Existing Home Sales Drop 2.2%  online.wsj.com)
• Housing: How Bad Will It Get?  blogs.wsj.com)
• May New-Home Sales Plunge 32.7%  dailyfinance.com)
• Calif.’s first-time buyer tax credit almost gone  lansner.ocregister.com)
• American Land Title Association Urges Congress to Extend Closing Deadline for Homebuyer Tax Credit  eon.businesswire.com)

Senate OKs new tax credit closing deadline

Congress is riding to the rescue for all of you in the Lake Oroville and Paradise California real estate markets who have qualified for the first time home buyer tax credit  by having a home purchase contract in place before the April 30, 2010 deadline, and are in danger of not being able to get the purchase closed by the deadline of June 30, 2010 because your lender is overwhelmed by the backlog of paperwork created by the frenzy.

With just two weeks before the expiration of the tax credit program ,an amendment to HR 4213 was added which, if signed by the President, will  extend the closing deadline to September 30, 2010. The extension was requested by the mortgage industry will allow a backlog of over 180,000 purchase transactions that were begun before the April 30th deadline to be completed. While this is a wise, and fair move on the part of Congress to agree to extend this deadline, it is important to understand that it THE EXTENSION IS NOT YET OFFICIAL.

With only 2 weeks to go before the original expiration date of the program, it is important for you, if you are one of these 180,000 transactions that has not closed, to keep pressure on your lender to get your loan done.  In this political environment it would be foolish to think that the proposed deadline extension of September 30th is a done deal. 

I will keep you updated as new information becomes available.

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• Senate approves home tax credit extension  seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Home-Buyer Tax Credit Update: Senate Moves to Extend Closing Deadline  blogs.wsj.com)

 Hello again Paradise CA real estate market watchers and welcome back to your weekly stats. There is really not anything of note in this weeks’s report. With the deadline to qualify for any type of homebuyer tax credit fast approaching, I would expect to seeing some upward movements in the stats over the next 4-6 weeks.

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This is the 200th  post for thisLake Oroville & Paradise, CA real estate market blog. For a milestone such as this you might think that I would have something profound to impress upon you about the housing market in the Lake Oroville and Paradise, California areas.

To tell the truth, I actually considered that. But I came upon something yesterday that changed my mind about how to celebrate this monumental moment.

The hard drive on the computer that I use in my day to day operations is getting a little full. Ok, it is almost totally full. The hard drives on all my computers are  like my garage and storage area at my home.  I have a hard time throwing anything out. After all, I might need that stuff someday.

But, the time had finally come to clean house in a cyberspace sort of way.  As I was deleting files to make room for those that are now more important,  I came upon some old ad copy that I had written more than 10 years ago for listings that we were marketing back in the days when I was working with Bob Beever Realty.

Given the condition of the housing market in Oroville and Paradise, I thought you might enjoy a look back at some of those ads. See, I told you I might need them some day!!!

Ad copy for 9/30/99

 HARD TO FINDfive acres with well and 3 bd septic. Close to airport, golf, fishing and boating at Afterbay. Power readily accessible. Owner will carry with low down. Asking $45,000

 BANK REPO! 3bd 2ba 1980 mobile on 4 level acres. Has potential but needs work. Seller willing to finance for a long long long time with low low low down. Only $34,900

 TRIPLEX close to downtown. Seller motivated to sell quickly. Almost no vacancy rate. Assume favorable financing or ask seller to carry some paper. All offers considered. $114,900

 BEAUTIFUL VALLEY VIEW: Level to gentle sloping 5 acre parcel. Power close, minutes to lake, and you can almost see forever from here. Just $37,000

 ALMOST DESPERATE sellers need quick sale on this gorgeous property. Over 2700 sq ft incl. finished basement, 2 kitchens, 2 fireplaces, 24X48 shop, fenced pasture, small citrus grove. All on five acres close to town. Recently reduced to $198,000

 OUT OF TOWN SELLER can’t play landlord anymore. This home would make good rental or be perfect for buyer on small budget. Only $35,500

COPY FOR 12/3 – 12/4 1999 Read the rest of this entry »

 Now, before you get too excited about the change in sales for the Paradise real estate market compared to last week, you need to know that I have made a change in the areas that I am tracking for you.  Due to popular demand I have now added the Magalia area to my Paradise CA weekly reporting.  Reporting on a larger geographical area will smooth our the wild swings in the numbers that sometime occur with smaller samples of numbers. Stay tuned for future reports.

Of all the real estate blog posts I have read over the past year, very few, if any attempt to get a feel for what their readers think. In fact most of what I see out there in the blogosphere are glorified advertisements touting the author as the only person you should be using to help you buy or sell your next home.

In our office in the Lake Oroville and Paradise real estate markets we attempt to provide not only real estate market information on our blogs, but also a good mix of what is going on in our communities. And while it is easy to provide comment and feedback to each of our posts we realize that not everyone has the time in their hectic lives to sit down and submit written comments on any particular blog post.

Well, providing your opinion just got easier for those interested in the Paradise andLake Oroville housing markets. With the newest feature to my blog site having just been released by REALTY WORLD  you can now provide your opinion with just a quick mouse click or two on what will be a broad range of real estate topics, and even some topics that have nothing to do with the local real estate markets.

Introducing the Poll Question of the Month. Each month (or more often if you wish) I will post a question that you can answer quickly and easily. To the right of this post you will see this month’s question asking your opinion on where you think real estate prices are headed. Simply click on your answer and then click the VOTE button. It really is that easy.

And better yet, if you have a question you would like to see made part of the poll,  just drop me an e-mail and I will consider using your question.

Let me know what you think. This site is as much yours as it is mine.

Over the past eighteen months or so I am sure you have seen many an article written by various real estate professionals encouraging buyers to “get off the fence” to take advantage of the low prices and low interest rates currently available.  As a regular reader of this Lake Oroville and Paradise, CA real estate blog you have also seen my views of market conditions over the past year. Many buyers have taken the advice and made some magnificent deals on their purchase of homes in the Oroville and Paradise, Ca real estate markets.

The advice has been taken so seriously in fact that a new dilemma is now facing potential Oroville and Paradise buyers: A lack of adequate inventory!

Suffering from significant loses in the value of their homes, many Oroville and Paradise potential home sellers have decided to wait for the market to get “better” before putting their homes on the market. What the definition of “better” is remains to be seen, but a look at the trend in the Oroville inventory numbers (see chart) points to a need for some sellers to get off the fence themselves and take advantage of the lower interest rates, and the increase in buyer inquiries we are beginning to experience.

Granted, home prices are not what they were in 2006, but if you are waiting for a return to those prices, you are in for a very long wait. Those prices were a result of very loose and irresponsible lending standards. They were not driven by free market demand.

So what is a seller to do? Well, that depends on your circumstances. If you do not need to sell, then DON’T. If you are considering a sell but are thinking about waiting for a year or so for the market to improve, you may be outsmarting yourself. While it is possible (isn’t anything possible) that prices may move up in the next year, it is not very probable. I continue to think that we are at the bottom of this market but that we will be bouncing along the bottom for quite some time. Maybe two to three years before we see any consistent price appreciation trends in our local markets.

Historically low interest rates, and lower prices have significantly increased the home affordability for Californians. An increase in either of these factors will exclude potential buyers from the market further delaying any meaningful recovery.

Another thing to consider when contemplating a sale is how many other homes are on the market that compete for the attention of potential buyers. With inventories at an 8 month low, now would be the best time for your home to be seen by the most buyers.

I know that many of you are upside down with your mortgages at the present time and NEED to wait for a significant turn in home values. But for those of you who owe less than the value of your home or own your homes outright, this may be a good time to think about getting off the fence.

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A not so funny thing happened to the Paradise, CA real estate market last week. Only two sales to report from Paradise this week.

The one encouraging thing to take from the week’s meager numbers is the fact that the average Paradise home sale was over $250,000 and the average time that each of these two homes were on the market was only 24 days. From the seller’s side of the equation it is good to see higher prices homes selling quickly.  Hopefully we will have more substantial numbers to discuss next week.