Free Real Estate Market, meet Dr. I Told You So

Dr. I Told You So: What seems to be the problem today, Free Market

Free Market: I’m  just exhausted, Doc.

I Told You So: Really? Tell me why.

Free Market: Well, every time I try to do my job, something, or someone, interferes with me.

I Told You So: Didn’t we have this conversation about 10 years ago?

Free Market: Yes, when a bunch of meddlers forced me to loan money to people who would never have been approved for a loan, had they let me do my job. 

I Told You So:  So, how has it gone since then?

Free Market: Well, I hit my head real hard when I fell of the cliff. Since then they have been trying to put me on disability, thinking that I am no longer capable of doing my job.

I Told You So: Let me get this right, they attempted to disable you, Free Market.

Free Market: Yes.

I Told You So: Didn’t I tell you that there is no way to disable you? That the only way to stop you is to take you over?

Free Market: Yes, but how come nobody else seems to understand this?

I Told You So: Who is nobody?Free Market: Well, Let’s see. Congress, The California Legislature, The National Association of REALTORS, the California Association of REALTORS and many individual REALTORS that I am around.

I Told You So: What did they do to you?

Free Market: There I was trying to recover from my fall, barely starting to feel like my old self again when all of a sudden I was told I wasn’t  working fast enough and then they held me down and injected me with something they called stimulus.

I Told You So: Are you saying what I think you are saying.

Free Market: Yes, they injected me with the leftover Cash from Clunkers serum.

I Told You So: Oh no. No wonder you are exhausted.

Free Market: Yeah, as soon as they injected me I started running around feeling stronger that I have in the past three years. Everybody thought I was finally healing.

I Told You So: Not everybody.

Free Market: Huh?

I Told You So: Didn’t I tell you that if they tried the Cash for Clunkers medicine on you that it would not work. That it would only temporarily interrupt you, Free Market, from doing what you do.

Free Market: Yes.

I Told You So: So how is it going now.

Free Market: I am now going through withdrawals. I have come off my high and now everybody is saying that I am tanking again. And I think I am. Existing home sales are down almost 30% and new home sales are down over 12%.

I Told You So: Don’t panic about this! Sales are down now because of the high they put on you with that market interferce drug called “Tax Credit.” Now that the drug has worn off you have the chance to do the job you were established to do. But you have to carry the temporary burden of being looked down upon for going where you were already going before you were assaulted.

Free Market: Boy, am I glad to hear THAT.

I Told You So: Always remember this, Free Market. You are much like a mail carrier. Neither rain nor sleet, nor government or trade group interference, can keep you from your appointed duties.

Free Market: Thanks Doc.

I Told You So: You’re welcome.  Now get out there and get that Supply and Demand thing going again!!! Oh, and that will be $300.00. You can pay my receptionist on the way out.

Free Market: Gee thanks, I guess the Free Market IS back.

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For example, the Super Bowl Indicator theorizes that the year in which a team from the AFC wins the Super Bowl the stock market will fall, but if an NFC team wins the market will rally. Amazingly, this “predictor” has been right 80% of the time over the years. Another of these anecdotal predictors is the Hem Line Effect. This theory says that as hem lines move up so does the market and when hem lines get longer the market drops.

So, what does this have to do with anything related to the real estate market in Lake Oroville, Paradise and Chico, you say?

As to those theories, nothing. But I think we unintentionally swerved into the first real estate industry anecdotal predictor of the real estate market, in our office. I call it the Redenbacher Effect.

I discovered this theory while Steffan, one of the associates in my office was popping his $1.00 bag of popcorn ( that he bought at the Dollar Store, because that is where REALTORS® shop these days) in our microwave oven. You might imagine the quality level of $1.00 popcorn is not quite the same as the good stuff you get at the movies for about $5.00 a bag.  The fact that Steffan eats at least a bag a day of this stuff has leads me to believe that he is quite the popcorn connoisseur.

I will never forget the profoundness of the words that eminated from his lips as the Redenbacher Effect was born:

 ”I sure will be glad when the market gets good again so I can afford to buy something better than this $1.00 popcorn c*@p.”

With the suddenness of a light bulb being switched on to interrupt the darkness of an empty room, it hit me that we may finally have an accurate way to forecast the pending direction of  not only the Lake Oroville real estate market, but the real estate markets of all 4 corners of the world!

The Redenbacher Effect is defined as this:

When Steffan is eating $1.00 popcorn c*@p the real estate market is c*@p. When he starts buying more expensive popcorn (i.e. Orville Redenbacher Movie popcorn) the market is going to improve.

Now you might be thinking that I have finally lost it, and actually, you may be right.  But just think about how well (or not so well) the so-called experts have predicted the direction of this market. I mean, really, can this be any less accurate than the methods they use. I think not.

There is, however, one thing that can throw this whole theory into a tailspin.  What happens when someone GIVES us a box of premium popcorn. For example, I was telling my friend Jim Moll about my theory yesterday and when I arrived at the office this morning there was a box of Orville Redenbacher popcorn at my backdoor.

It took me a while to consider the consequences of his generosity. What will happen if we eat this premium popcorn while the market is down like it is?  Will the market improve even though Steffan did not pay for it? The respective answers are, NOTHING, and NO.

You see it occurred to me that Jim’s gift was a POPCORN CREDIT. He was simply giving us popcorn in the hopes that it would give the market time to stabilize so that we can buy the better and more expensive popcorn later. So we have had the CASH FOR CLUNKERS credit, the FUNDS FOR FORECLOSURES credit and now we have CORN FOR C*@P credit.

I wonder if this will work better than the previous credits?……I think we all know the answer to that one hmmmmmm.

Stay tuned to this blog post for updates on the Redenbacher Effect. And remember, you first heard about it here.

But, wait!! I thought the government’ s tax credit program was supposed to stabilize the market. If you listened to, and believed what,  the National Association of REALTORS® and the California Association of REALTORS® have had to say about the credits, you should be seeing a recovery by now. But, what we are beginning to see, on a National basis, (which is what most of us read and hear about) is a rapid move of the market toward the place it would have already gone,if  the people who should know better would have been honest about the ultimate impact of these credits they were supporting.

Instead these groups landed on the side of  getting a quick “fix” instead of thinking long term. Now we have to look even longer term because the inevitable has been prolonged.

Now let’s be honest here. I and my office associates, here in the Lake Oroville and Paradise real estate markets,  no doubt benefited from the temporary increase in sales that resulted from the credits. Our sales numbers increased like everyone else’s.  I would, however, have gladly sacrificed the short term benefits in order to re-establish a viable, vibrant and free real estate market. One that has staying power.

As it is we are saddled with the hangover from the housing version of  Cash For Clunkers, or as I prefer to call it:  “Funds For Foreclosures”

If you think that I am all gloomy and doomy about this market you are wrong. I think that expiration of these tax credits now allow us to come back to reality and now focus on the real cause of this market today. UNEMPLOYMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Maybe a softer real estate market going into election season will be one more reason to finally get us the changes we need in order to get  our country’s, and our state’s, economic engine restarted.

As they say, Everything Happens for A Reason.

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• American Land Title Association Urges Congress to Extend Closing Deadline for Homebuyer Tax Credit  eon.businesswire.com)

Congress is riding to the rescue for all of you in the Lake Oroville and Paradise California real estate markets who have qualified for the first time home buyer tax credit  by having a home purchase contract in place before the April 30, 2010 deadline, and are in danger of not being able to get the purchase closed by the deadline of June 30, 2010 because your lender is overwhelmed by the backlog of paperwork created by the frenzy.

With just two weeks before the expiration of the tax credit program ,an amendment to HR 4213 was added which, if signed by the President, will  extend the closing deadline to September 30, 2010. The extension was requested by the mortgage industry will allow a backlog of over 180,000 purchase transactions that were begun before the April 30th deadline to be completed. While this is a wise, and fair move on the part of Congress to agree to extend this deadline, it is important to understand that it THE EXTENSION IS NOT YET OFFICIAL.

With only 2 weeks to go before the original expiration date of the program, it is important for you, if you are one of these 180,000 transactions that has not closed, to keep pressure on your lender to get your loan done.  In this political environment it would be foolish to think that the proposed deadline extension of September 30th is a done deal. 

I will keep you updated as new information becomes available.

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To tell the truth, I actually considered that. But I came upon something yesterday that changed my mind about how to celebrate this monumental moment.

The hard drive on the computer that I use in my day to day operations is getting a little full. Ok, it is almost totally full. The hard drives on all my computers are  like my garage and storage area at my home.  I have a hard time throwing anything out. After all, I might need that stuff someday.

But, the time had finally come to clean house in a cyberspace sort of way.  As I was deleting files to make room for those that are now more important,  I came upon some old ad copy that I had written more than 10 years ago for listings that we were marketing back in the days when I was working with Bob Beever Realty.

Given the condition of the housing market in Oroville and Paradise, I thought you might enjoy a look back at some of those ads. See, I told you I might need them some day!!!

Ad copy for 9/30/99

 HARD TO FINDfive acres with well and 3 bd septic. Close to airport, golf, fishing and boating at Afterbay. Power readily accessible. Owner will carry with low down. Asking $45,000

 BANK REPO! 3bd 2ba 1980 mobile on 4 level acres. Has potential but needs work. Seller willing to finance for a long long long time with low low low down. Only $34,900

 TRIPLEX close to downtown. Seller motivated to sell quickly. Almost no vacancy rate. Assume favorable financing or ask seller to carry some paper. All offers considered. $114,900

 BEAUTIFUL VALLEY VIEW: Level to gentle sloping 5 acre parcel. Power close, minutes to lake, and you can almost see forever from here. Just $37,000

 ALMOST DESPERATE sellers need quick sale on this gorgeous property. Over 2700 sq ft incl. finished basement, 2 kitchens, 2 fireplaces, 24X48 shop, fenced pasture, small citrus grove. All on five acres close to town. Recently reduced to $198,000

 OUT OF TOWN SELLER can’t play landlord anymore. This home would make good rental or be perfect for buyer on small budget. Only $35,500

COPY FOR 12/3 – 12/4 1999

 

CLOSE TO LAKE.3bd 2 ¾ ba. 2200+ sq ft., tiled kitchen, huge garage w/ office, in-ground pool, lg. Hot tub, covered redwood deck. Asking $182,500

WELL AND SEPTIC IN. 5+ acres only 3.5 miles from town. Power very close-by.  Owner/broker will carry. Only $45,000

GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD. 2/1 on McClellan Ave. Covered patio, nicely landscaped, same owner since 1956. Seller motivated. $62,000

END OF THE CUL-DE-SAC. 3/1 on approx. ½ ac lot. Central heat and air, attached garage, large backyard with electric gate opener. Only $72,500

OVER 5 ACRES WITH A VIEW. Well and septic are in, power is adjacent. Your choice of 2 building pads. Paved driveway. Just minutes to lake.  $59,500

PRICE REDUCED. 2/1 close to downtown. Out of town seller is desperate for quick sale. Now only $33,500

ESTATE SALE  4 bd 2ba  approx 1800 sq ft. Lg living rm w/ fireplace and insert. Great location. ¾ acre lot. Asking $79,500

In our office in the Lake Oroville and Paradise real estate markets we attempt to provide not only real estate market information on our blogs, but also a good mix of what is going on in our communities. And while it is easy to provide comment and feedback to each of our posts we realize that not everyone has the time in their hectic lives to sit down and submit written comments on any particular blog post.

Well, providing your opinion just got easier for those interested in the Paradise andLake Oroville housing markets. With the newest feature to my blog site having just been released by REALTY WORLD  you can now provide your opinion with just a quick mouse click or two on what will be a broad range of real estate topics, and even some topics that have nothing to do with the local real estate markets.

Introducing the Poll Question of the Month. Each month (or more often if you wish) I will post a question that you can answer quickly and easily. To the right of this post you will see this month’s question asking your opinion on where you think real estate prices are headed. Simply click on your answer and then click the VOTE button. It really is that easy.

And better yet, if you have a question you would like to see made part of the poll,  just drop me an e-mail and I will consider using your question.

Let me know what you think. This site is as much yours as it is mine.

The advice has been taken so seriously in fact that a new dilemma is now facing potential Oroville and Paradise buyers: A lack of adequate inventory!

Suffering from significant loses in the value of their homes, many Oroville and Paradise potential home sellers have decided to wait for the market to get “better” before putting their homes on the market. What the definition of “better” is remains to be seen, but a look at the trend in the Oroville inventory numbers (see chart) points to a need for some sellers to get off the fence themselves and take advantage of the lower interest rates, and the increase in buyer inquiries we are beginning to experience.

Granted, home prices are not what they were in 2006, but if you are waiting for a return to those prices, you are in for a very long wait. Those prices were a result of very loose and irresponsible lending standards. They were not driven by free market demand.

So what is a seller to do? Well, that depends on your circumstances. If you do not need to sell, then DON’T. If you are considering a sell but are thinking about waiting for a year or so for the market to improve, you may be outsmarting yourself. While it is possible (isn’t anything possible) that prices may move up in the next year, it is not very probable. I continue to think that we are at the bottom of this market but that we will be bouncing along the bottom for quite some time. Maybe two to three years before we see any consistent price appreciation trends in our local markets.

Historically low interest rates, and lower prices have significantly increased the home affordability for Californians. An increase in either of these factors will exclude potential buyers from the market further delaying any meaningful recovery.

Another thing to consider when contemplating a sale is how many other homes are on the market that compete for the attention of potential buyers. With inventories at an 8 month low, now would be the best time for your home to be seen by the most buyers.

I know that many of you are upside down with your mortgages at the present time and NEED to wait for a significant turn in home values. But for those of you who owe less than the value of your home or own your homes outright, this may be a good time to think about getting off the fence.

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The one encouraging thing to take from the week’s meager numbers is the fact that the average Paradise home sale was over $250,000 and the average time that each of these two homes were on the market was only 24 days. From the seller’s side of the equation it is good to see higher prices homes selling quickly.  Hopefully we will have more substantial numbers to discuss next week.