Now, normally I would proclaim to all of you in the Lake Oroville real estate market that all real estate is local and that it is much more important to stay in tune with the local home sales numbers as opposed to general reports on the market. While this is still my philosophy, I do not think it is at all wise to IGNORE reports on the broader markets. After all, it is the broader markets that get the media coverage when it comes to just about anything real estate these days. Like it or not the media has a lot of influence on the consumer’s psyche that helps in creating the mindset that consumers are using when making decisions on whether to buy or sell a home.  If you are a regular reader of this blog site that serves the real estate housing markets of Oroville, Chico, Paradise, Yuba City, and Marysville California you know that I do not believe any improvement will occur in this housing market until we have two things: Employment and consumer confidence.

It is becuase of the latter of these two vital ingredients that I want to share excerpts from the article posted on DQNews.com.

The number of California homes that went into foreclosure fell to a four-year low last quarter, the result of a more stable housing market as well as policy changes in the mortgage servicing industry, a real estate information service reported.

Last quarter’s activity was the lowest for any quarter since 53,493 NoDs were recorded in the second quarter of 2007. It was well below half the record 135,431 default notices recorded in the first quarter of 2009.

A total of 56,633 Notices of Default (NoDs) were recorded at county recorders offices during the April-to-June period. That was down 17.0 percent from 68,239 for the prior quarter, and down 19.2 percent from 70,051 in second-quarter 2010, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. The probability was highest in Kings, Sutter and Yuba counties.

Trustees Deeds recorded (TDs), or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 42,465 during the second quarter. That was down 1.4 percent from 43,052 for the prior quarter, and down 10.9 percent from 47,669 for second-quarter 2010. The all-time peak was 79,511 in third-quarter 2008.

Last quarter’s trustees deeds total was the lowest since 35,431 were filed in fourth quarter 2010, and the second-lowest since fourth quarter 2007, when 31,676 were filed.

Now, let’s be clear here. Even with this “encouraging” news, we have a long long way to go until the real estate market is healthy again. But it is important to understand, especially for you buyers out there who are still waiting for things to go lower, that this market is so beat up right now that, if this type of news consistently continues over the next two or three quarters, it is very possible to see some firming up of prices and maybe even some very modest price increases.  Just food for thought.

In an artice that just arrived in today’s communication from Inman News, I thought I was experiencing Deja Vu all over again. In fact, some of it sounded so familiar that I started to rack my brain as to where I had heard this kind of thing before. I looked high and low and still no hint. I looked inside and outside. I looked everywhere in the entire Lake Oroville real estate market area. But no luck remembering where I had heard it before.

So now my dear readers, I turn to you for help. Here, excerpted in part, (Click Here to see entire article) is what I read from the article written by Glen Roberts, Jr., entitled “ A slow-motion real estate recovery”. Maybe you  can help me remember:

Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, said government stimuli have delayed recovery.

“We’re not in a ‘double dip’ in my mind,” said Dotzour — referring to some economists’ talk of a second dive into downturn after some signs of an economic rebound — “we just never hit bottom in the first place.”

The market essentially “fell off a cliff,” and the government’s “lifeline” of programs it throttled at the recession, among them the homebuyer tax credit programs, “Cash for Clunkers” auto program, loan mod programs and Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt, did not have the intended benefits.

The market “would have started coming back up to a year ago or so if we hadn’t had the federal intervention in the first place.”

The federal homebuyer tax credit programs appear to have been largely ineffective, essentially “stealing” sales forward that would have occurred at a later time. “We believe pretty strongly that we paid back every bit of that stimulus,” he said, with the slumping sales that followed expiration of the tax credits.

Hmm…..now where in the world have a I heard these type ideas before?????  Wait……………..yes…………………..now I’m starting to remember………….Here is what I had read in the past.

August 31, 2009

“When the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit was enacted, I advised that we not get too excited about any uptick in sales activity, as the uptick will be the result of the government paying people to buy homes creating an ‘artificial’ demand.”

“The housing sales numbers will continue their upward trend, and may even accelerate through the end of the year as last minute first time home buyers scramble to close escrow by November 30, 2009.  Should Congress choose not to extend the credit deadline we will probably begin to see a trailing off of  the sales pace toward the middle of spring 2010.”

“On the home values front, we are still facing a huge challenge. There are still plenty of foreclosures on the market and the word is the banks have plenty more inventory on their books that have yet to come to market. If this is true, home values will continue to stay depressed. If these reports turn out to be exaggerated it will be good news for home values going forward.”

September 30, 2009

“My big concern is that getting money from the government to buy a house or buy a car or to buy anything, is like giving the consumer economic cocaine. It only takes once or twice to get hooked on it and the fear of consumer withdrawl will cause the Congressional junkies to keep pushing more at us.”

“I say let the free market do it’s thing.”

October 23, 2009

“Remember that during the “dark days” of the market when it seemed that everyone was saying the collapse of the real estate market was leading us into the next Great Depression? At the same time I was advising you to take the predictions of gloom and doom with a grain of salt and keep your perspective on what was really going on.”

“I am advising the same thing now. While these are impressive numbers, they are numbers mostly driven by the federal first time home buyers tax credit, the Cash for Clunkers for the housing industry. To provide the perspective on this look what happened after the Cash for Clunkers program ended; auto sales dropped by up to 50% for some auto makers. There is still some heartburn to go through as we climb out of the hole created by the explosion of the bubble. Hopefully, while making the ascent we don’t find ourselves on a slippery slope that is sometimes created by government bailouts.”

June 23, 2010

“But, wait!! I thought the government’ s tax credit program was supposed to stabilize the market. If you listened to, and believed what,  the National Association of REALTORS® and the California Association of REALTORS® have had to say about the credits, you should be seeing a recovery by now. But, what we are beginning to see, on a National basis, (which is what most of us read and hear about) is a rapid move of the market toward the place it would have already gone, if  the people who should know better would have been honest about the ultimate impact of these credits they were supporting.”

“Instead these groups landed on the side of  getting a quick “fix” instead of thinking long term.  Now we have to look even longer term because the inevitable has been prolonged.”

 

So have you figured out who is responsible for this foresight?? Just click on any of the above date links and it will all become clear to you.

Lately the word is, the more things change the more they stay the same. Except for overall home values, that is. In Oroville we can’t seem to sell anymore than 7-8 homes per week and average prices of the Oroville home listings that are selling continue to trail downwardly.

Here are this week’s numbers: 

The higher rate was imposed upon California by our legislature and Governor on April 1, 2009 in the hopes of helping close the budget gap caused by the out of control spending of our “state leaders.” As usual, raising taxes only made matters worse. But enough about politics.

With the expiration of the current increased tax rate only two weeks away (unless it is somehow extended) it is wise to consider putting of any non-essential purchase until the new rate takes effect. Consider the savings you will enjoy by putting off the purchase of that new car you are about to buy. By simply waiting a mere two weeks you can save yourself $200 in sales tax for a $20,000 car and $300 in taxes for a car that costs you $30,000. Heck, that is like getting a free tank of gas Speaking of cars, you can also save on registration fees if you put your purchase off until July 1st because vehicle registration fees are also being rolled back then.

The reduction in the sales tax is going to be good for the economy of a state struggling to get back on its economic feet by leaving consumers with more money in their pockets that will most likely be spent on other things. For example, the overall price on a gallon of gas will be reduced by the reduction in the sales tax. At today’s price of $3.77 per gallon at the corner AM/PM you will save almost 4cents per gallon with the new (or should I say old) rate.

If it is at all possible for you to put off that taxable purchase until July 1, then I say do it and keep more of YOUR money.

Related articles

• Calif. legislators OK online sales tax, and that means Amazon(bizjournals.com)
• California Democrats send budget to Brown(bendbulletin.com)
• California Lawmakers Pass No-Tax Budget as Deadline Looms(businessweek.com)

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Today’s public service message is short and sweet to homebuyer’s everywhere:

LISTEN UP!!!

When your loan officer tells you not to buy anything using your credit card during the loan process…..Listen up!

When your loan officer tell you to be sure you have a paper trail for ANY funds you receive during the loan process….Listen up!

When your loan officer tells you that any gift funds that someone is willing to give you must not go directly into your bank accounts…Listen up!

When your loan officer tells you not to deposit those “stashed under the mattress” funds into your accounts….Listen up!

As a borrower you must understand that the loan qualification does not end when your lender pre-qualifies you for a loan.  Any changes to your financial position before your home purchase is COMPLETE will affect your ability to procure your loan. In most cases the effect is that you disqualify yourself for your loan.

Your lender will be monitoring your financial situation throughout the loan process and WILL be aware of changes to it. Be sure that you not only hear what your loan professional is telling you, but also be sure to LISTEN UP!!

If you do, you will find that the loan process is much simpler and less stressful.

Related articles

• 3 Simple Questions to Get the Right Mortgage(godfreyrealtygroup.wordpress.com)
• 3 Must-Ask Questions for Mortgage Shoppers(muniratherealtor.wordpress.com)

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To be perfectly candid, in a market such as this, and,  as a matter of fact, in any type of market,  it is pretty much an economic impossibility to have a website such as this one, pay for it myself, and still be able to subscribe to other online real estate tools that assist buyers, sellers, and others in the Lake Oroville real estate market and beyond, in quenching their thirst for information on market conditions, or in assisting them in determining the value of their Oroville, Chico, Paradise, or Yuba City home.  A simple comparison search of other agent’s personal websites, if they even have one, will bear me out on this.

The newest feature that I able to subscribe to is one that provides you the ability to do a FREE search for the status of properties in the foreclosure process. With just a couple clicks of your mouse you can search for, and request foreclosure information on, not just any Lake Oroville home, but of homes in the states of California, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, and Nevada that are facing foreclosure.  This new service is powered by ForeclosureRadar.com, which is the new leader in the gathering and disseminating of foreclosure information in the Western United States.

If you find a property about which you would like to know more, simply click on the link and complete the request form. The request form comes direct to my e-mail box and I can then provide the current status to you.  (Don’t worry, I am not going to spam you into oblivion with a bunch of worthless e-mails)

Accessing this free search service can be done by clicking the Foreclosure widget or the Foreclosure Search navigation link at the top of my site. Or click here to access the search screen.

Related articles

• Report: Foreclosure Activity Drops in April(blogs.wsj.com)
• Foreclosures vs. Delinquencies: It’s All About the Courts(blogs.wsj.com)
• Foreclosure Filings Fall To 40-Month Low(clewismortgage.wordpress.com)
• VA Foreclosures(vabenefitblog.com)

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In the early, and inexperienced, years of my career I got somewhat caught up in the answer that every real estate “salesperson” used: “Oh, it’s great. I have lots of transactions going, and I am really busy!!” As I matured in the business (or just got too old to hype things anymore), I realized that the pat answer that everyone else was giving was not what inquiring minds wanted to know. People  wanted to know what market conditions really were. Not some pie-in-the-sky, feel good answer. Problem was, back in 1994,  there was no easy way (remember, Al Gore was just inventing the Internet in those days) to gather the data necessary to actually provide any reliable and timely reporting aboutOroville real estate market conditions.

Wow, how times have changed….or have they? I still hear people asking about the market and I still hear nearly all the real estate sales people using the same cliche’d responses. What  I have strived to do on this blog site over the past 2 years is to provide an opportunity for you to see for yourself  how the market is doing, in an unbiased, straightforward approach. Letting you see the stats for yourself.   The leaps and bounds that technology has taken now makes it possible for you to avoid the “opinions” about the market and allows you to draw your own conclusions. Afterall, the market is not driven by opinions, it is driven by the numbers.

My latest tool, that I am making available to you, is data that shows the latest and greatest information about the Oroville foreclosure market. The charts included in this posting show the trend of foreclosure filings over the past year for the Oroville real estate market areas of  zip codes 95965 and 95966, but I am also able to provide more indepth charts as I expand my foreclosure reporting to you.

I am holding myself back from giving my take on what these two charts might be telling us, because I would like to hear from youabout what you think. Click the comment button at the top of this post to chime in.

If you would like a bigger view of these charts, simply CLICK HERE or on one of the charts.

 It is good to see the sales volume for Oroville homes sold to break through the $1 million mark. Inventories are holding steady but remain at nearly a 2 year low.  Unfortunately, for Oroville sellers, bank-owned properties, as a percentage of total Lake Oroville listings, are still the highest they have been since I began tracking these numbers.

You can also access this weekly report at my facebook page: REALTYWORLD.CA

Don’t ask me why I haven’t done this for so long. Except for the fact that the market for Oroville home sales has not changed much since we last discussed this, I really have no reason, or even a lame excuse.

But, with Spring  just around the corner (I think), there is no better time than the present to start again. First you will notice that I am again posting monthly and yearly comparison stats in the right columns of this blog.  Here you can see how the sales of Oroville homes compare to Butte County as a whole. Remember the old saying that all ”all real estate is local”. So ignore the national stats because they have nothing to do with our local markets.  Oh, one more thing…. MY intent is to also post these stats on my facebook business page at www.facebook/RealtyWorld.CA so if you haven’t been there please stop by and “LIKE” my page to be sure that you see my posts there.